Back in 2019 I swore heat pumps were a scam and bought a gas furnace in Boise instead
I told my wife it would pay for itself in 3 winters and I would never touch the thing. Two winters in, the igniter died on a Sunday and the repair guy in Boise charged me $380 just to walk in the door. Meanwhile my neighbor ran his heat pump all season and his bill was about $40 less than mine every single month. Did I just get unlucky, or was I fooling myself the whole time?
Used to say the same thing, heat pumps are for people who don't get real winters. Then my buddy in Spokane got one and I watched his numbers. His place is about the same size as mine and his winter bills ran maybe 50 bucks under mine every month, and that's with the cold snaps we get. The part that got me was no igniter to blow, no yearly tune up guy, just a filter swap a couple times a year. My last furnace repair was 300 bucks for a blower motor and I sat in the cold for two days waiting on the part. Two winters is a small sample, but the math on your neighbor isn't a fluke. You didn't get unlucky, you just bet on the wrong horse.